Description of Session
Africa is expected to become one of the fastest growing economic regions in the world. As income grows, the demand for livestock and livestock products also will increase. These developments are likely to spur dramatic intensification and expansion of livestock production. But rapid growth also poses economic and health risks from diseases among animals and people, antimicrobial resistance, and environmental degradation. We developed a policy modeling tool to generate information for policy dialogue and decision-making to mitigate risks from livestock intensification on human, animal, and environmental health. The Excel-based model makes explicit the connections among human and animal population growth, zoonotic disease, public health outcomes, livelihoods, and environmental impacts. Excel was chosen to program the model to increase its availability in developing countries. Outputs include the number of cases of a specified zoonotic disease in animals and humans and the burden of zoonotic disease in humans, measured in DALYs and in economic impact. The model also projects changes in the water use and green-house gas emissions emanating from livestock. Users can design scenarios that mirror potential strategies and interventions to mitigate the consequences of livestock growth and intensification on human, animal and environmental health. During the session we will present results of the model for a country application in Africa
